Transcript for Wrestling with Uncertainty, segment 13 of 16


Earlier we described how the process of field growth affects resource estimates. Though the future of any individual field is difficult to predict, we found that fields within regions show similar patterns of growth so for this assessment we've developed curves that describe the general nature of growth for oil and gas fields within each region. These curves show that most fields grow rapidly in their early years and much more slowly later on so if a field was discovered, say, five years ago, to predict its future growth, we'd run it through eighty-five years of this curve. If the field was discovered eighty years ago, we'd run it through only ten years. By doing this for every field within a region and then summing regional figures, we get an estimate of potential additions to reserves from field growth for the entire country.